Is it possible? Yes.
But, you know what's also possible: winning the lottery...4 times in a row.
So, is it probable? No. (By the way, you have a better chance of winning the lottery 4 times in a row than guessing a seed.)
Number of Possible Seed Phrase Combinations
Your seed phrase comes from a specific list of 2048 words. In order to access your wallet, someone would not only have to guess all the words, but also put them in the correct order.
For a 12 word seed phrase, there are about:
777,788,267,247,859,345,059,141,959,844,041,626,185 possible valid combinations
Note: (2048^11)*(2048/(11-4))
For a 24 word seed phrase, there are about:
1,976,184,989,650,196,401,895,611,477,481,606,960,695,807,738,293,598,959,606,742,767,068,384,079,188,241 possible valid combinations.
Note: (2048^23)*(2048/(23-8))
These are huge numbers. So huge, it's pretty much nonsense to the human brain. But, let's put those numbers into perspective.
You have a better chance of...
| Your house burning down. 🔥 🏠 | One in 3,000. |
| Getting struck by lightning in your lifetime. ⚡🌩️ | One in 15,300. |
| Being dealt a royal flush on the first hand. | One in 649,740. |
| Getting attacked by a shark...and dying. 🦈 ⚰️ | One in 3,748,067. |
| Winning Powerball Jackpot (single ticket). 💰 | One in 292,201,338. |
| Winning the Mega Millions Jackpot (single ticket). 💰 | One in 302,575,350. |
| Flipping a coin and getting heads 100 times in a row. 🪙 | One in 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000. |
Per the National Safety Council, you're more likely to die prematurely:
Source: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/
Practically, anything else is more likely to happen than someone guessing your seed phrase.
It's more likely your seed gets destroyed unexpectedly, gets lost, or gets stolen than someone guessing it.
You should be more worried about taking sufficient precautions to preserve your seed for the long term and conducting proper security practices to keep your seed safe.
For more information on preservation and security, see our other posts below:
